Tech Update
David Berlind's Reality Check
David Berlind
Where TabletPC will succeed
By David Berlind
July 15, 2002
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Of the many things emerging from Microsoft's labs, the TabletPC is one of the most exciting and tangible. While most of Microsoft's other lab work will eventually find its way into existing products, the TabletPC operating system will create an entire cottage industry that includes all sorts of newfangled hardware and software.

So, it's no wonder that the company's executives (including Bill Gates), product managers, and public relations teams have spent a considerable time demonstrating early prototypes in hopes of getting the masses revved up. But, it's not the masses who are excited about the TabletPC.

Since writing my first column about TabletPC's chances of success, I have had a chance to digest hoards of e-mail on the topic, the results of our on-line poll, and the input of several system vendors that are in a good position to take advantage of any high-growth market. The bottom line? It isn't easy finding people who are as excited as Microsoft is about TabletPC's prospects for the masses.

Consider Dell. The guy who has Michael Dell's ear about what mobile products the company should sell--Dell's Director of Product Marketing Anthony Bonadero--doesn't see a lot of promise for TabletPC. Considering Dell's knack for staying in profitable segments and the customers that it's regularly in touch with, I put a lot of credence in Dell's conservative approach to the mobile market. So far, Dell doesn't even sell a handheld. Says Bonadero: "Dell continues to evaluate tablets, and we are working with Microsoft and our suppliers but are not actively pursuing a Dell TabletPC offering at this time. We do not expect mainstream market penetration and even in segments where tablets are adopted, we see the mix relatively low."

Another reason for Dell's lukewarm feeling about tablets is the cost. Although my earlier column asserts that tablets will be more expensive than notebooks (based on the input from other vendors), Bonadero thinks that the competitive nature of the market will drive the price of tablets down to be about the same as notebooks. But, according to Bonadero, special parts like the digitizer, styli, display swivels, and other "ink" enabling components (including a higher priced operating system) will drive up the cost of producing and supporting tablets. Do the math. If the price is the same, but the costs are higher, the vendor eats the difference.

No wonder Dell isn't too hot on the idea. Not that we buyers care whether vendors have a good margin on their products. But, there's more to a system than the system itself. You'll want a company that can stand behind the products it makes. If vendors have difficulty turning a profit on any line of products, those products typically don't last long and support is often reduced to "shell" status.

Bonadero is also bearish on tablets because there isn't a standard for ink as a data type. "We do believe that if the ability to digitally 'ink' on the screen is such a killer app, then it should not be solely a form factor discussion. The industry should enable ink on flat screens, clamshell LCDs, traditional notebooks, etc." He's right. When TabletPC's ink integrated into documents and e-mails, that integration is lost once it leaves Microsoft's walled garden. For example, if you try to use non-Microsoft technology to view e-mail with embedded ink, the inked objects will come as attachments rather than being contextually integrated (as the author intended). Until ink is ubiquitous across all hardware and software, it won't reach killer-app status.

But Bonadero isn't all bear about TabletPC. He says "the Tablet PC is particularly relevant in vertical markets and segments like healthcare, education and others." Between what Bonadero had to say, our poll results, and the e-mail I've received, I'm prepared to swallow my statement

The reason TabletPC is likely to be a big hit in vertical markets is because of the development tools. Now that Microsoft is in the tablet game, things may change for users who have needed tablets (like doctors in hospitals) but could never afford them. Not only that, but many existing users of tablets are likely to reconsider replacing what they're using now. Development tools are the key because now it will be much easier for the developers of Windows-based vertical applications (healthcare, pipeline management, manufacturing, etc.) to tablet-enable their applications and integrate them into existing infrastructures such as e-mail systems and networks.

Based on my e-mail, healthcare is the one industry that's gaga over the prospect of tablets. Today, if hospital administrators want real-time data on all patients, doctors (or their designees) have to key that information into a computer immediately after seeing those patients. Without getting into the gory details, you can imagine how inefficient the process could get. But if those applications were tablet-enabled, and every doctor had a tablet…. get the picture? Sure, other tablet solutions exist and many are in use today. But no company knows how to build development tools for the masses like Microsoft does. Developers and IT departments will no longer have to turn to boutique products and companies to tablet-enable those vertical applications where the cost of going the boutique route previously couldn't be justified.

Once you go the tablet route, you'll need to decide whose hardware to use. Unfortunately for those of you who like Dell, the company won't have an offering (for now). But plenty of other vendors, including Toshiba, Acer, Fujitsu, Viewsonic, Motion Computing, and Via, are apparently game. While the official launch date for TabletPC isn't until November 7, I expect to get some more hands-on experience with the various offerings between now and then and will report my findings as they become available.

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